30 Years to Recover?


In a recent article, Bakersfield Appraiser, Gary Crabtree wrote that ‘there is credible evidence that the housing market in Bakersfield will take up to 30 years to recover.’  I don’t know if I agree with that or not but he makes some good points.  It is going to be a while before we see a significant recovery in the in median price of housing.  There are more foreclosures coming and there is a surplus of available inventory.  In May 2010 there were approximately 1600 homes for sale plus another 6,800 in foreclosure.  It would take a year just to absorb the existing inventory.  Prices still seem to be unstable.  The average listing price dropped $44,000 from May to June.

So what does that mean?  Is this a time to buy?  I don’t think that anyone is saying it’s not.  Gary Crabtree’s comments mean that we shouldn’t buy expecting that rapid appreciation everyone got excited about between 2003 and 2006.  Expect to buy your house and keep it for awhile.  It’s back to fundamentals.  Buy good values and keep them. As a homebuilder, I am telling my clients that now is the time to be building.  Lot prices are lower than they have been in years, construction costs are still low, construction lending is starting to soften, and there are a lot of communities to choose from.

Builders are competitive right now.  With the average price per square foot for a resale home hovering around $164 the market is getting back to where it makes sense to build.  There are many communities where you can buy a lot and build your own home for less than the average price per square foot of a resale. 

Building your home lets you get what you really want.  Not something you settle for that happens to be on the market or a foreclosure that has been stripped and you have to put in all new appliances, tile, and carpets.

Here are a few things you should consider if you’re thinking about building a new home?

Choose a community that has homes of the style and size you want.  It is always better to build a smaller house in a neighborhood of bigger houses.   That will help protect your resale value.

Choose a neighborhood that has specific home construction guidelines Be sure that the rest of the homes built in your neighborhood will be similar to yours.

Choose a local experienced builder.  You want someone that has built here before and who is going to be there for you if you have warranty issues or if you want to add on or change things later. An experienced local builder knows where all the best lots are and can buy it for you or help you buy it.

Larry Koman has been a licensed Contractor and Home Builder since 1980. He specializes in building homes, restoring houses, and light commercial construction. He has built homes throughout California including San Jose and Santa Rosa and is now located in Bakersfield, California, where he has lived for 16 years. Larry is active in the Boys and Girls Clubs of Kern County and serves on the Redevelopment Agency Board of Directors for the City of Bakersfield. He writes for national online publications including Dr.Laura.com and Disasters911.com. For more information on Larry and his views, visit www.komanhomes.com.

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